reason for optimism

Forgive me for just piggybacking on his point, but I want to echo Ross Douthat (and others) in saying that the recent high-profile defections from the Qaddafi government are heartening. Let's be brutally realistic: it's entirely possible that individual defectors will have no practical impact on the strength of the Qaddafi regime, and it's also very possible that a collapsing Qaddafi government could lead to a whole host of problems. (There's no guarantee, and there never has been, that rebel victory won't eventually turn to civil war due to divisions within that temporary alliance, or to the installation of a new autocratic government.)

But my greatest hope in a tragic situation has been and continues to be that the Qaddafi regime collapses internally, whether from his deciding to flee in the face of uncertainty, or from his military/advisers/inner circle deciding to push him out themselves. Perhaps then the infrastructure of civil society could be preserved while the monstrous governing party is pushed out in favor of a new government. It's a dim hope, with much that could go wrong, and we won't really know what the long term consequences of such a thing would be for many years, but it's worth hoping for.

If the Qaddafi government does somehow come to fall out of power, all people of conscience-- realists, liberal hawks, non-interventionists, neoconservatives, and all flavors in between-- have to be adamant: no American "influence" of the new government. No installation of friendly leadership, no de facto choosing sides with providing arms or money to favored actors within Libya, none of the endless machinations by our intelligence service of internal Libyan affairs. It's precisely that kind of flagrantly anti-democratic action that has so poisoned our reputation in that part of the world. We've got to hold their feet to the fire, and I expect every supporter of intervention to loudly insist that the United States not interfere in the formation of a new Libyan government. Look, you know my mind on this issue: I want no interference of any kind from the US. But certainly, the US backing off completely from Libyans forming a new government is something almost all of us can agree upon, if it gets to that point.

There's never been any contradiction between wishing for new government in Libya and refusing to advocate killing undertaken towards that purpose.

For now, of course, this talk is purely speculative.